15 DEC -ARTICLE BY Wambui WA Wambui
During the last election, held in 2017, Suleiman Dori emerged the winner, after garnering 22,564 votes.
But who were his competitors? How many votes did they get?
The elections results were as follows:
Omar Boga - 10,275
Bashiri Mohammed- 5,656
Mwakulonda Ali - 3,354
Dicky Mwero - 291
Marere WaMwachai - 3,564.
Total votes for all the above candidates = 23,140.
Remember Dori garnered 22,564 votes.
When you look at the total number of votes that Dori's opponents got, you can tell that majority of the people of Msambweni voted against Dori.
There are underlying factors in this race that will swing this seat either way, and I will mention them as we proceed.
What must be understood is who, between the DP, and ODM cum handshake supporters, are more hungry and determined to win this by election?
For starters, one of the aspirants that decided to pave way for Faisal, after talks with the DP is Bashiri Kilalo. This man was the Jubilee candidate in the 2017 election. He garnered 5,656 votes.
He's currently not in the race . So, in whose basket, will his votes be banked into? In this case, who else, but Faisal.
So upto this point, going by the 2017 results, let's say Omar Boga's 10,275 votes are still intact.
Faisal now follows Boga with the 5,656 votes that he has inherited from Bashiri.
Are we together till this point? Good.
Tuendele kusondeka hii hesabu.(let's continue dissecting this math)
Now, kindly do not count the 22,564 votes that Dori garnered as having been inherited by anyone at this point. Izo bado ziko intact.
But soon, I will show you how they will be split.
Msambweni has 4 wards:
1. Gombato - 17,538 registered voters.
2. Ukunda - 21,500 registered voters.
3. Kindondo - 11,014 registered voters.
4. Ramisi - 18,569 registered voters.
Fun fact as far as the wards are concerned is that Omar Boga is a former MCA of Gombato ward.
Given this fact, am prepared to award Boga with a chunk of votes from his former ward.
Look at it this way, given that this is a by election, I expect that it's only half of the 17,538 voters of Gombato ward will actually come out and vote in the by election.
So, 17,538/2 =8,769.
Out of this 8,769, let's give Boga half of the votes, which is 4,385.
Now, add this tally of 4,385 to Boga's 10,275, which now tallies to 14,660.
Let's give Faisal the remaining votes ie, if you minus 8,769 (by election numbers) with 4,385 (Boga's numbers in Gombato), you're left with 4,384 votes.
So, Boga (ODM) has 14,660, while Faisal with Bashiri's 5,656 votes in 2017, now has 10,040 votes, after adding the remaining 4,384 votes.
This is after counting Gombato ward votes.
NB: Am only giving Bashiri votes to Faisal because the other aspirants who stepped down in favor of Faisal weren't featured in the 2017 elections, so its difficult to assess what impact they have on the ground, in terms of numbers.
The remaining votes will be divided among the candidates due to the various underlying factors in Msambweni constituency.
1. Boga is the younger brother of Prof Hamadi Boga, the current PS in the Ministry of Agricuture. Hamadi has thrown pointers indicating his interest in vying for the Kwale governorship in 2022.
It will be interesting to see how this one spins in the by elections.
2. Faisal Abdallah is the former PA to the late MP Dori.
3. It will be remembered that Dori, before passing on, was already cozying up with DP Ruto, to an extent that ODM threatened to expel him from the party.
It will be remembered that ODM bullied and threatened Dori, to an extent Dori gave ODM a half hearted apology, but methinks Dori knew he was on the last stage of life, and didn't want to go to court and fight with ODM in a court battle, as he battled for his life.
4. Digo women factor. This is a constituency that gave the entire coast province its first woman elected MP, ie, Marere WaMwachai. I found out last week while I was in Ukunda, that Digo women are influencers on who becomes the Mp for Msambweni.
They refused to back one of their own, ie Mwachai after claiming she neglected them after they overwhelmingly voted for her in 1997.
Given the fact that Faisal is Dori's former PA, am willing to give him half of Dori's 22,564 votes, going ward by ward.
This means, if you divide 22,564/2 =11,282
Assume that only half of the 11,282 voters will come out and vote, you therefore get, 5,641 voters per ward...ie 11,282/2=5,641.
Add this tally to Faisal's 10,040, and you get 15,681.
Remember, we are not splitting Boga's 2017 tally as we have split Dori's. I decided to be generous and give him all the votes he garnered in 2017.
So hadi apo, we have Faisal (Independent), with 15,681 while Boga (ODM), has 14,660.....give or take.